Question: Should I start right now?

Answer: Let’s turn this around. If I would say “no” then I should be selling my stocks
right now. Since I have quite a bit of money invested in this portfolio, I would say “yes”.
A word of caution though; I’m not saying that you’ll make money on some or any of the
stocks that are currently in the portfolio if you were to start right now. My simulations
show that you should make money in the long run if you follow the portfolio but also that
you may encounter some losses in the short term. If you feel that you’re not going to cope well with making a loss for a while then you could wait until the simulated returns of the portfolio shows a dip. That’s what I did when I started with this method on August 13,
2004. Despite the dip at that time, my gains could have been a bit higher if I had started
several months earlier. You may want to look at the simulated results and track it for a
while (e.g. a couple of months) until you feel comfortable.

Question: Some of the stocks in the portfolio have run up a lot. Should I wait for those
stocks to drop a bit?

Answer: Maybe, but I have not been successful in doing this myself. The point of having
5 stocks is that you’re somewhat diversified and that the effect of any one stock is
somewhat diminished. Since any one stock is only about 20% of your portfolio, even if
that one stock drops 5% then it only makes a difference of 1% on your total portfolio.
This is about the average daily up or down movement of the portfolio. Of course if it
drops 20% then it would make a 4% difference and it would matter. At that point you’re
going to think that it’ll drop further and hold off. The stock may then recover before
you’re willing to make the trade and you’re back where you started. On the flip side, if
the stock slowly creeps up then you keep waiting for this drop. At some point you realize
its not going to drop and you may start blaming yourself for not making the trade
right away. So you finally cave in and buy the stock. Of course, then it drops. Personally
I don’t think it’s worth the agony (and time). I like to keep things simple and keep the
emotion out of it. That’s why I developed this method in the first place.